中国能跨越“中等收入陷阱”吗?——一个区域发展的视角

Can China Overcome the“Middle Income Trap”?--From a Perspective of Regional Development

考察一些典型国家在中等收入阶段区域发展格局的变化,并依据增长极理论对现象进行剖析,得到的基本结论是:落入中等收入陷阱的国家,发挥增长极作用的引领区存在严重增长失速问题,同时也未能发挥应有的区域带动作用,使得地区差距比较大。这背后更深层次的原因是,引领区域过度依赖资源和原料产业,不能形成合理的地域分工格局,导致地区差距比较大,进而导致整体经济增长不可持续。对中国经验事实的分析显示,中国具有避免落入中等收入陷阱的基础,但也应关注近年来引领区出现的经济减速现象,以及跟随区与引领区发展差距不断拉大的问题,这些都可能会影响整体跨越进程。

The middle income trap is a“threshold”that a country must cross towards modernization.In this process,it is important to properly handle the relationship between regional development and the overall development of the country,especially for a large country like China with a large population and different regional development conditions.This article examines the changes in the regional development patterns of some typical countries amidst the middle-income stage,and analyzes the phenomenon based on the growth pole theory.The basic conclusion is that countries that fall into the middleincome trap have serious problems of slow growth in leading regions that play the role of the growth pole.These regions also failed to play its due regional leading role,resulting in a relatively large regional gap.The deeper reason behind this is that the leading regions show an overreliance on resources and raw material industries,failing to form a reasonable geographical division of labor,leading to relatively wider regional gaps,which in turn leads to unsustainable overall economic growth.The analysis of China's experience and facts shows that China has the basis to avoid falling into the middle-income trap,but it should also pay attention to the economic slowdown in the leading regions,as well as the widening development gap between the follow-up regions and the leading regions,all of which might affect the overall development process.