长寿风险对城镇职工基本养老保险个人账户收支平衡的冲击效应

Impact of Longevity Risk on the Balance of Income and Expenditure of Individual Accounts of Urban Employees’Basic Pension Insurance

老龄化带来的长寿风险是目前养老保险制度体系中最值得重视的系统性风险之一。对个人账户中的长寿风险进行理论界定,以Lee-Carter模型和个人账户计发系数为切入点,从人口预期寿命和养老金调整的角度,对当前我国城镇职工养老保险个人账户所面临的长寿风险进行测度。通过构建个人账户收支平衡优化模型,考察长寿风险中各因素对个人账户收支平衡的冲击效应。实证结果表明:当前我国城镇职工养老保险个人账户中男性的长寿风险为62个月,女性为94个月;长寿风险对个人账户的冲击将逐年增大,其中养老金调整因素的冲击效应更大。

Longevity risk caused by aging is one of the most systemic risks that cannot be ignored in the current pension insurance system.This article defines the longevity risk in individual accounts,and uses the Lee-Carter model and the personal account calculation coefficient as the starting point.From the perspective of population life expectancy and pension adjustment,the current personal insurance account.The longevity risks faced are measured.By constructing a personal account balance-of-payment optimization model,the impact of various factors in longevity risk on personal account balance-of-payments was examined.The empirical results show that the longevity risk of males in China's urban employee endowment insurance personal accounts is 62 months and that of women is 94 months.The impact of longevity risk on personal accounts will increase year by year,and the impact of pension adjustment factors will be greater.