人口老龄化与企业家精神的时空差异与路径机制——基于省级面板数据的回归模型研究

Spatial-temporal Differences and Path Mechanisms of Nonlinear Relationship between Population Aging and Entrepreneurship-Regression Models Based on Provincial Panel Data

研究基于我国1997-2017年省级面板数据,运用二阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)等模型分析了人口老龄化与企业家精神之间的关系,得出以下结论:(1)人口老龄化与企业家精神存在倒U型非线性关系;(2)人口老龄化对企业家精神的影响程度存在时空差异:西部地区人口老龄化对企业家精神的影响显著强于中、东部地区,2004-2010年人口老龄化对企业家精神的影响程度明显高于1997-2003年以及2011-2017年;(3)人口老龄化不仅直接影响企业家精神,而且会通过固定资产和人力资本这两条路径间接作用于企业家精神。最后,研究给出了相应的对策建议。

Using the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2017,this paper employed the two-stage least squares(2SLS)and other models to study the relationship between population aging and entrepreneurship,with the following conclusions being drawn:(1)There is an inverse U-shaped nonlinear relationship between population aging and entrepreneurship;(2)The degree of population aging on entrepreneurship will vary depending on the spatial and temporal distribution:the impact of population aging on entrepreneurship in the central and western regions is more significant than in eastern regions.The effect of population aging on entrepreneurship in 2004-2010 is more significant than that in 1997-2003 and 2011-2017;(3)besides the direct effect that population aging can have on entrepreneurship,the indirect effects were also examined between population aging and entrepreneurship via path mechanisms of both fixed assets and human capitals.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions are provided according to the empirical research results.