丝绸之路经济带沿线国家经济地位及关系研究

Research on the Economic Status and Relationship of Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt

采用社会网络分析方法研究丝绸之路经济带沿线63个国家2008年-2018年的数据,通过度中心度、特征向量中心度、结构洞分析、凝聚子群分析等多个角度解析丝绸之路经济带的空间格局及演变过程。结果表明:第一,中国、印度、俄罗斯在丝绸之路经济带中占据最为核心的地位,但大多数国家间经济关联性普遍偏弱,网络的集聚性较弱,空间网络的“核心-边缘”特征明显;第二,从变化趋势来看,小国的度中心度和特征向量中心近年来增长趋势更加明显,受全球政治经济因素影响,结构洞指标中有效规模有削减的趋势而限制度逐年增加;第三,结合经济联系强度以及凝聚子群分布状态发现,目前亚洲地区受丝绸之路经济带拉动最为明显,是丝绸之路经济带中经济网络最为密集的区域,东非和西欧地区则相对较为松散。

The social network analysis method is used to study the data of 63 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2008 to 2018.The Silk Road economy is analyzed through multiple angles such as degree centrality,eigenvector centrality,structural hole analysis,and aggregation subgroup analysis for the spatial pattern and evolution.The results show that:First,China,India,and Russia occupy the most important positions in the Silk Road Economic Belt,but most of the countries have weak economic correlations and weak agglomeration of networks,so the"core-edge"of space networks is obvious.Second,from the perspective of changes,the growth of the degree centrality and eigenvector centrality in small countries has become more obvious in recent years.Due to the influence of global political and economic factors,the effective scale of structural hole indicators has been reduced and the degree of restriction has been increasing year by year Increased.Third,combined with the strength of economic ties and the distribution status of cohesive subgroups,it is found that the Asian region is currently most strongly driven by the Silk Road Economic Belt,which is the region with the most dense economic network in the Silk Road Economic Belt,and that in East Africa and Western Europe is more loosen.