油气管道定量风险评价技术发展现状及对策

Development status and countermeasures of quantitative risk assessment technology for oil&gas pipeline

油气管道风险评价是完整性管理的核心环节,随着管道完整性管理精细化要求的不断提高,管道风险评价由半定量评价逐步向定量评价转变。通过分析油气管道定量风险评价技术在计算模型、技术标准、软件等方面的发展现状,总结了管道定量风险评价技术存在的主要问题:缺少历史失效数据库、失效后果模型适用性较差、缺乏风险可接受标准及定量风险评价软件等。针对管道定量风险评价的技术瓶颈,提出建立统一的管道失效历史数据库、制定管道定风险评价技术标准以及风险可接受标准等对策,以期为管道定量风险评价技术的进一步发展提供参考。(图1,参25)

Pipeline risk assessment is the key process of pipeline integrity management.With the continuous improvement of refinement requirements for pipeline integrity management,pipeline risk assessment also transfers from semi-quantitative assessment to quantitative assessment.Through the analysis on the development status of quantitative risk assessment technology for oil and gas pipeline in terms of calculation model,technical standard and software,the main problems of current pipeline quantitative risk assessment technology were summarized,including lack of historical failure database,poor application of failure consequence model,lack of acceptable risk criteria and quantitative risk assessment software.Aiming at the existing technical bottlenecks of the pipeline quantitative risk assessment,some countermeasures,such as establishing uniform pipeline failure history database,formulating technical standards for pipeline risk assessment,and developing acceptable risk criteria,were put forward,which would provide reference for the development of quantitative risk assessment technology for oil and gas pipelines.(1 Figure,25 References)