家庭贫困脆弱性评价方法及实证

Evaluation Method and Empirical Study of Household Poverty Vulnerability

文章构建以概率模型为主的贫困脆弱性评价方法,并利用中国城市家庭微观调查数据分别从全国、地区、家庭视角进行实证分析。研究发现:中国城市兼具绝对贫困与相对贫困的特点,且相对贫困形势更为严峻;中国城市还融合了慢性贫困与暂时性贫困现象,且暂时性贫困现象更为普遍。河南、湖南、湖北、重庆是未来贫困高发地区;黑龙江、广西、北京和上海则相对贫困较为突出。随着贫困脆弱性的年轻家庭化,孩子抚养和家庭教育失衡问题成为加剧贫困脆弱性的重要因素,婚姻、家庭成员教育均衡投入、拥有住房所有权表现出较好的抑制效应;重大疾病史能间接发挥遏制作用,而户主性别、医疗保险的减贫效果则不明显。家庭心理作为潜在风险因素,对贫困脆弱性具有双刃剑效应。

This paper constructs an evaluation method for poverty vulnerability based on probability model, and makes an empirical study from the national, regional and household perspectives by utilizing micro-survey data of urban households in China. The study finds that Chinese cities are characterized by both absolute poverty and relative poverty, and the situation of relative poverty is more severe;Chinese cities combine chronic poverty and temporary poverty, and temporary poverty is more common;Henan, Hunan, Hubei and Chongqing are the areas with high incidence of poverty in the future;relative poverty is relatively prominent in Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Beijing and Shanghai. As poverty vulnerability tends to young households, child-rearing and the imbalance of family education have become important factors to aggravate the poverty vulnerability, while marriage, balanced investment in family education and ownership of housing show a good inhibitory effect. The history of serious diseases plays a deterrent role indirectly, but the poverty reduction effect of gender of household head and health insurance is not obvious. As a potential risk factor, family psychology has a double-edged-sword effect on poverty vulnerability.