考虑削负荷责任分摊的电力系统可靠性跟踪方法

Reliability Tracing Method for Power System Considering Responsibility Allocation of Load Shedding

电力系统可靠性跟踪方法可以定量分析电力元件(设备)对系统可靠性的贡献并有效识别电力系统的可靠性薄弱环节。然而,现有的可靠性跟踪方法均是基于比例分摊准则",一刀切"式地平均化处理元件对系统不可靠性,精度不高。在这种情况下,尝试基于Shapley值分摊不同元件停运对系统削负荷责任的贡献,提出了一种新的可靠性跟踪方法及相应的准则。首先,通过状态枚举,梳理出所有由元件停运导致的停电事件集合。然后,基于所提出的Shapley值可靠性跟踪准则,将每个停电事件集合的可靠性指标分摊到相关的停运元件上。最后,将所有停电事件集合的分摊结果累计,得到各个元件对系统可靠性的贡献量。以RTS-79系统为例,验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。

Reliability tracing methods of the power system can quantitatively analyze the contribution of power components(equipment) to system reliability and effectively identify the weak parts of reliability for the power system. However, the existing reliability tracing methods are based on the proportional sharing principle, which process the contribution of components to system reliability with"one-size-fits-all"method, and it is not accurate enough. In this context, this paper proposes a new reliability tracing method and the corresponding principles to allocate the load shedding responsibility to different component failures based on the Shapley value. First, all outage event sets caused by component failures are sorted out by state enumeration. Then, based on the proposed reliability tracing principles with the Shapley value, the reliability index of each outage event is allocated to the relevant failed components. Finally, the contribution of each component to the system reliability is obtained by accumulating the apportionment results for all outage event sets. Case studies on the RTS-79 system show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.