疫情后的世界经济和金融:“长尾”“日本式衰退”和政策新边界

The World Economy and Finance After the Pandemic:“Long tail”,“Japanese-style Recession”and New Policy Boundaries

一场突如其来的全球新冠病毒疫情,在速度和规模上,都以远远超出人们想象的力度冲击全球经济与金融,深刻地改变着世界。全球疫情还在指数级蔓延,在各国的“解禁”政策下,疫情成为“长尾”和“肥尾”,未来具有极大的不确定性。所有这些都预示着,世界经济将步入低利率、低通胀和低增长的“日本式衰退”,世界经济复苏将会是一个缓慢的弱过程。与危机同时进行的,是全世界的学术界、政府、业界对危机根源的询问,对危机教训的研究,对未来方向的探讨。未来充满挑战,也满是机遇。

A sudden global COVID-19 pandemic,in terms of speed and scale,has impacted the global economy and finance with a force far beyond people’s imagination,and profoundly changed the world.The global pandemic is still spreading exponentially.Under the policy of“lifting the ban”of various countries,the pandemic has become a“Long tail”and a“Fat tail”,and the future is extremely uncertain.All these indicate that the world economy will enter a“Japanese-style Recession”of low interest rates,low inflation and low growth,and the recovery of the world economy will be a slow and weak process.At the same time as the crisis,academics,governments,and industries all over the world are asking about the root causes of the crisis,studying the lessons of the crisis,and exploring the future direction.The future is full of challenges and opportunities.