“一带一路”管道天然气贸易网络特征与中国地位演进研究

Characteristics of Pipeline Natural Gas Trade Network along the Belt and Road Route and the Evolution of China’s Status

"一带一路"油气资源丰富,是我国天然气贸易合作的重要区域。中国目前管道天然气进口集中度较高,在国际政治经济等不确定因素下存在"供气不足"的隐患。分析"一带一路"管道天然气贸易网络特征及我国在该网络中的地位演进规律,有利于我国对"一带一路"管道天然气贸易格局的科学研判,进而优化天然气对外合作布局。本文基于复杂网络理论,采用2011~2018年"一带一路"沿线国家管道天然气贸易数据,运用复杂网络加权度中心性、网络密度、介数中心性、网络社团结构等指标,分析了该区域内管道天然气贸易网络特征及中国的地位变化。结果显示:"一带一路"天然气贸易网络具有"小世界"特征;区域内国家和地区之间贸易紧密度呈波动上升趋势,俄罗斯在网络中的影响力相对下降;中国凭借进口规模的扩大,在网络中的贸易影响力逐渐增强,加权度中心性仅次于俄罗斯;"一带一路"沿线管道天然气贸易社团呈现以俄罗斯社团为主体的"一大多小"的格局,中国在社团演进中已取代土库曼斯坦成为其所在社团核心。中国应在"一带一路"政策红利下,加大与俄罗斯等网络核心国家的合作,同时深化与乌兹别克斯坦等社团内部成员国的互联互通,加强与外部社团成员国的对话与合作。

Rich in oil and gas resources,the countries along the Belt and Road route are China’s major cooperation partners in natural gas trade.Due to the high import concentration of pipeline natural gas at pre-sent,there is a hidden danger of insufficient natural gas supply in China under the uncertainties including international politics and economy.Analyzing the characteristics of pipeline natural gas trade network along the Belt and Road route and the evolution of China’s status in the network is beneficial for the scientific research and judgment of the trade pattern of pipeline natural gas along the Belt and Road route,thus optimizing the layout of foreign cooperation in the field of natural gas.Based on the complex network theory,this paper uses the pipeline natural gas trade data from countries along the Belt and Road route from 2011 to 2018 and uses the indicators of complex network such as weighted centrality,network density,betweenness centrality and network community structure to analyze the characteristics of pipeline natural gas trade network in the area and the change of China’s status.The results show that the natural gas trade network along the Belt and Road route can be characterized as a small world.The trade tightness between countries and regions in the area fluctuates upward,and Russia’s influence in the network is relatively lower than before.China’s trade influence gradually increases with the expansion of import scale,and its weighted centrality is only next to Russia.The pipeline natural gas trade associations along the Belt and Road route present a pattern of one major association and multiple small associations,and Russia is the major association.In the evolution of association,China has replaced Turkmenistan as the core in the irassociation.China should take full advantage of the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance the cooperation with core countries in the network including Russia,while deepening the interconnection with member states within the association such as Uzbekistan and strengthening the dialogue and cooperation with member states of the external associations.