6座城市装配式建筑政策聚类和模拟评估分析

Policy clustering and simulation evaluation analysis of six cities for prefabricated buildings

装配式建筑发展日益成为建筑业转型升级创新发展的重要载体。聚焦于北京、济南、南京、深圳、沈阳和唐山6座城市,将6座城市装配式建筑相关政策聚类为需求引导政策、土地支持政策、规划支持政策、财政支持政策、金融支持政策、税收支持政策、建设环节支持政策、技术支持政策、绿色理念引导政策,进行系统化梳理,6座城市政策的共性和特性。课题组研发了装建云——基于系统动力学的政策模拟评估系统,分别构建了6座城市的政策模拟因果关系回路图和存量流量图,模拟了强、中、低三种强度下的政策运行效果。研究结果表明,6座城市在"十三五"期间的装配式建筑9类政策取得了显著成效,发挥了协同效应,不同类型政策带来的影响存在差异,尤其是需求引导政策、土地支持政策对装配式建筑拉动效应最大,建设环节支持政策最为丰富且拉动效应最为直接有效,财政支持政策和规划支持政策出台和实施的难度最大。不同城市模拟出来的装配式建筑占比发展趋势基本一致,6座城市如继续保持中等强度政策实施力度,预测"十四五"期间建筑工业化水平将稳步提升,可达到预期目标。

The development of prefabricated buildings has increasingly become an important carrier for the transformation,upgrading and innovation of the construction industry.Focusing on 6 cities of Beijing,Jinan,Nanjing,Shenzhen,Shenyang and Tangshan,prefabricated building related policies of 6 cities were clustered into demand guidance policies,land support policies,planning support policies,fiscal support policies,financial support policies,tax support policy,construction link support policy,technical support policy,and green concept guiding policy,and the commonality and characteristics of the policies of the six cities were systematically sorted out.The research team developed the Zhuangjianyun which was a system dynamics-based policy simulation evaluation system,to respectively construct the policy simulation causality loop diagram and the stock flow diagram of 6 cities,and to simulate the policy operation effects under the three intensities of strong,medium and low.The research results show that the 9 types of prefabricated building policies in the 6 cities during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period have achieved significant results and have played a synergistic effect.Different types of policies have different impacts.In particular,demand guidance policies and land support policies have the greatest pulling effect on prefabricated buildings.The construction link support policies are the most abundant and the pulling effect is the most direct and effective.The introduction and implementation of fiscal support policies and planning support policies are the most difficult.The development trends simulated of different cities are basically the same.If the six cities continue to maintain the implementation of the medium-intensitypolicy,it is predicted that the level of construction industrialization during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period will steadily increase,and the expected goal can be achieved.