自然灾害治理政策的工具偏好与路径优化——基于中央层面政策文本的内容分析

Tool Preference and Path Optimization of Natural Disaster Governance Policies——Based on the Content Analysis of Policies of the Central Government

【目的/意义】有效的自然灾害治理依赖于政策工具的科学选用。【设计/方法】采用内容分析法,按照样本选择、构建分析框架、政策条文编码及统计数据分析等步骤,对中央政府发布的自然灾害治理政策文本进行筛选和逐条编码,从政策工具(X)-灾害治理全过程(Y)的二维维度对最终形成的638条编码进行计量和分析。【结论/发现】结果显示,我国自然灾害治理中存在强制命令型工具使用过滥;政策工具在灾害治理各环节使用失衡;政策体系不健全等问题。未来应该提高市场激励型政策工具的使用比例,丰富信息化政策工具的内容,扩大社会引导型工具的范围,发挥自然灾害治理政策工具间的合力;合理搭配政策工具,加强应急演练以不断优化应急预案;加强政策工具在恢复重建阶段的使用;推动制定自然灾害治理基本法,完善自然灾害治理政策体系。

[Purpose/Significance]Effective natural disaster governance is inseparable from the scientific selection of policy tools.[Design/Methodology]According to the steps of sample selection,analytical framework construction,policy text coding and statistical data analysis,this paper adopts content analysis approach by selecting and coding the natural disaster policy texts issued by the central government,and analyzes the 638 codes from two-dimensional perspectives of policy tool(X)and the whole process of disaster governance(Y).[Findings/Conclusions]The research results show that there exist some problems in China’s natural disaster governance,such as the overuse of coercive tools,unbalanced use of policy tools,weak policy system,among others.Therefore,it is suggested to increase the application of market incentive policy tools,diversify the content of informationization policy tools,expand the scope of social guidance tools,and give play to the synergy among policy tools for natural disaster governance;make a reasonable mix of policy tools and strengthen emergency drill for constant optimization of emergency plan;strengthen the use of policy tools in the recovery and reconstruction phase;push forward the establishment of basic law in natural disaster governance and improve the policy system for natural disaster governance.