汇总会计盈余与通货膨胀——基于盈余分解视角的发现

The Predictability for Inflation of Aggregate Accounting Earnings:Analysis Based on Earnings Decomposition

汇总会计盈余对通货膨胀波动的预测价值已被现有研究所证实,但对其实现路径的分析尚不多见。利用2004年第一季度至2019年三季度沪深上市公司数据,本文基于盈余分解视角构建季度汇总应计项目和现金流,分别检验其对未来通货膨胀的预测功能。研究发现,汇总应计项目变化与未来通货膨胀显著正相关,但汇总现金流与未来通货膨胀的相关性并不显著,即会计盈余对通货膨胀的预测主要经由应计项目实现。进一步研究发现,汇总应计项目与未来宏观融资需求、固定资产投资以及居民收入等总需求变量显著正相关,说明会计盈余对宏观总需求的反映也经由应计项目实现。同时,公司层面检验也证实,应计项目更能反映公司未来投资支出情况。本研究通过对会计信息与通货膨胀之间相关性的内在逻辑进行考察,为会计信息的宏观预测价值提供了进一步的证据支持。

The predictability for inflation of aggregate accounting earnings has been proved by recent researches,but few papers focus on the effect paths of the predictability for inflation of aggregate accounting earnings.By constructing the quarterly aggregated accounting data of A-share listed companies from 2004 Q1 to 2019 Q3,this paper tests the predictability of aggregated accruals and cash flows for future inflation,and finds that the aggregated accruals show significantly positive relation with future inflation,while the aggregated cash flow shows no significance relation,which means its predictability comes from the accruals parts,not the cash flow.Further research finds that the aggregate accounting earnings could predict the financing demand,the future fix asset investment and resident income,and this predictability also comes from the accruals part,and we find the same result in firm level that the accruals contain the information about future investment.By investigating the logic between the accounting earnings and inflation,this result show the further knowledge about the predictability for inflation of aggregate accounting earnings.