核电厂安全壳地震概率风险评估

Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Containment

地震概率风险评估可分别基于地震风险解析函数和风险卷积函数实现。本文推导了地震风险解析函数,分析了地震风险解析函数蕴含的两个基本假设和两个近似,分别基于地震风险解析函数和风险卷积函数计算了我国某核电厂安全壳地震风险。结果表明:采用幂指数函数近似地震危险性极值Ⅱ型分布对风险结果无影响;对于算例厂址,地震风险解析函数中K H和kⅠ为常数的近似会高估核电厂安全壳面临的地震风险;我国核电厂安全壳结构地震风险较低,具有较大安全裕量。建议采用地震风险解析函数初步评估我国核电厂安全壳地震风险。

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment could be respectively conducted using analytical function of seismic risk and risk convolution function.In this paper,analytical function of seismic risk was conducted,two basic assumptions and two approximations of analytical function of seismic risk were analyzed,and seismic probabilistic risk analysis of a nuclear power plant containment of our country were respectively conducted using analytical function of seismic risk and risk convolution function.The results show that there is no influence on seismic risk results using a power exponent function approximating seismic hazard distribution following extreme valueⅡtype distribution.For the case of this paper,seismic risk of a nuclear power plant containment is overestimated based on analytical function of seismic risk,which uses constant K H and kⅠ.Seismic risk of a containment is low in our country,which has a large safety margin.It is proposed that the preliminary seismic risk assessment of a nuclear power plant containment of our country using analytical function of seismic risk should be conducted.