面向技术创新风险的竞争情报预警系统动力学模型研究

Research on Dynamic Model of Competitive Intelligence Early Warning System for Technological Innovation Risk

[目的/意义]旨在为企业在技术创新风险管理中处理与竞争情报预警相关的因素之间的非线性关系提供启发和借鉴。[方法/过程]在文献综述基础上构建面向技术创新风险的竞争情报预警系统动力学模型,对模型进行了现实性检测和极限检测,并通过一个算例进行了模拟与仿真。[结果/结论]产品新颖性越大则需要的早期竞争情报预警越大,竞争情报预警活动要提前开展;对排名靠前的技术创新项目应进行更加周全的竞争情报预警筹划;在研发部门主导程度比较大的企业应该主动加强竞争情报预警活动;企业可以通过增加组织灵活度来减少竞争情报预警的投入。

[Purpose/significance]The paper is to provide inspiration and references for enterprises to deal with the non-linear relationship between the factors related to competitive intelligence early warning in technological innovation risk management.[Method/process]On the basis of literature review the paper constructs a dynamic model of competitive intelligence early warning system for technological innovation risk carries out a reality test and limit test on the model and simulates it by an example.[Result/conclusion]The greater the product novelty the greater the need for early competitive intelligence warning and competitive intelligence early warning activities should be carried out in advance;more comprehensive competitive intelligence early warning planning should be carried out for the top technological innovation projects;enterprises with a large degree of leadership in the R&D department should take the initiative to strengthen competitive intelligence early warning activities;enterprises can reduce the investment of competitive intelligence early warning by increasing organizational flexibility.