鲁中地区气温和地温变化特征及相关性分析

Change characteristics and correlation of air temperature and ground temperature in the middle area of Shandong province

利用鲁中地区25个国家气象站1981—2017年气象数据,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall、滑动T检验和ArcGIS空间插值等方法对该地区气温、地温时空变化特征及其相关性进行研究。结果表明,鲁中地区气温和地温的年际变化均呈波动型升高趋势,最低值和最高值出现时间一致,气候倾向率地温略高于气温;气温季节变化四季均呈上升趋势,地温为夏季呈下降、其他季节均呈上升趋势;冬季地温升温趋势明显高于气温,其他季节地温的升温趋势低于气温。气温于1997年前后发生了突变,地温于2012年前后发生了突变。空间分布特征结果显示,各地区年平均气温整体趋势为东南部低、西北部高,东部增温快、西部增温慢;年平均地温西部偏高,昌邑—潍坊—昌乐—沂源一带偏低,北部增温慢、南部增温较快。年平均气温与经度呈极显著负相关,其气候倾向率与经度呈极显著正相关;年平均地温及其气候倾向率与经度呈极显著负相关。各月地温和气温呈极显著正相关,相关程度冬半年高于夏半年;地温与气温月较差上半年逐月增加,下半年逐月降低。

Using of 25 national meteorological stations in the middle area of Shandong province,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and correlation of air temperature and ground temperature in this area were analyzed by the methods of linear trend esti⁃mation,Mann-Kendall mutation analysis,T-sliding and ArcGIS spatial interpolation.The results showed that the interannual varia⁃tions of air temperature and ground temperature in the middle area of Shandong province were similar and showed an undulating up⁃ward trend,and the lowest and highest temperature appeared in the same time.The climate tendency rate of air temperature was slight⁃ly higher than that of ground temperature.The seasonal variation of air temperature was all upward.The ground temperature showed a downward trend in summer,and the other seasons showed an upward trend.The warming trend of ground temperature in winter was sig⁃nificantly higher than that of air temperature,but the warming trend in other seasons was lower than air temperature.The air tempera⁃ture changed before and after 1997,and the ground temperature occurred around 2012.The spatial distribution of temperature showed that the overall trend of air temperature was low in the southeast,high in the northwest,and the warming trend was fast in the east and slow in the west.The trend of ground temperature showed high in the west,low in the Changyi-Weifang-Changle-Wuyuan area,and the warming trend was fast in the north and slow in the south.There was an negative correlation between the air temperature and the longitude,and climate tendency rate of air temperature was positively correlated with the longitude.The level of ground temperature was negative related to longitude,and its climate tendency rate was also negative related to latitude.The months ground temperature and air temperature were extremely positively correlated.The correlation degree in the winter half year was higher than that in the sum⁃mer half year.The month difference between ground temperature and air temperature was increasing month by month in the first half of the year,and decreasing month by month in the second half of the year.