中国钢铁工业资本存量测算及其效应探析——基于1952—2017年时间序列数据的实证分析

The Calculation of Capital Stock of China's Iron and Steel Industry and Its Effect——Based on Empirical Analysis of Time Series Data from 1952 to 2017

钢铁工业是国民经济发展和国防建设的基础产业,在社会产业链中处于承上启下的地位,它对经济增长、产业结构升级至关重要。钢铁工业属于资本密集型产业,固定资产投资形成的资本是最重要的生产要素,新中国在推进工业化的过程中对其优先投资,经过长期投资而积聚的钢铁工业资本极大影响了钢铁产品数量和结构,进而对经济增长、产业结构产生效应。依据相关历史数据,运用永续盘存法(PIM)核算1952—2017年中国钢铁工业资本存量,在此基础上建立它与经济增长、产业结构的VAR模型(EVIEWS10),运用脉冲响应函数分析三者之间动态作用机制,并通过方差分解分析三者之间冲击作用的贡献度,探析中国钢铁工业资本存量与经济增长、产业结构的效应关系。

The iron and steel industry occupies a link between the previous and the next in the social industrial chain.It is essential to economic growth and industrial structure upgrading.The iron and steel industry is a basic industry for national economic development and national defense construction.The iron and steel industry is a capitalintensive industry,and capital formed by investment in fixed assets is the most important factor of production.New China prioritizes its investment in the process of industrialization.The steel industry capital accumulated after longterm investment has greatly affected the number of steel products and structure,which in turn has an effect on economic growth and industrial structure.On the basis of relevant historical data,and by use of Perpetual Inventory Method(PIM)to calculate the capital stock of China’s steel industry from 1952 to 2017,a VAR model(EVIEWS10)is established between it and economic growth and industrial structure,the impulse response function is used to analyze the dynamic functioning mechanism between the three,and the contribution of the impact of the three is analyzed through variance decomposition,so as to make an exploratory analysis of the effect relationship between the capital stock of China’s steel industry and economic growth and industrial structure.