高附加值化是制造业升级的方向么?——基于全球多国数据的经济增长与制造业发展高附加值化的实证检验

Is High Value-added the Direction of Manufacturing Industry Upgrading?An Empirical Test of Economic Growth and High Value-added of Manufacturing Industry Development based on Multiple Country Data

多年以来,尽管缺乏充分的理论依据和实证支持,但所谓高附加值化是制造业升级的方向一说却一直是国内产业结构研究领域的主流看法,同时也是我国政府产业政策的重要主张。本文基于2014年全球72个国家的截面数据以及1997-2014年全球58个国家的面板数据,就经济增长和制造业发展过程中的高附加值化趋势是否存在作了多项实证检验,所有的相应分析结果均不支持这一说法。在此基础上,本文对1995-2013年19个OECD国家的分行业面板数据的研究还表明,至少在大类层面上,没有证据确定某一产业在各国或多数国家属于高(低)附加值产业,增加值率的相对高低只是少数产业的固有属性,高附加值产业的经济增长也并非相对较快。由此本文认为,经济增长和产业结构转换固然有着诸多特征乃至规律可循,但盈利动机驱使之下的企业行为未必就会造就一个所谓高附加值化的趋势,同时提高增加值率也不宜作为政府产业升级政策的具体目标之一。

For many years,despite the lack of sufficient theoretical basis and empirical support,the idea that high value-added should be the direction of manufacturing industry upgrading has long occupied the mainstream position in the domestic field of industrial structure research,and it is also an important proposition of government′s industrial policy.Based on the cross-sectional data of 72 countries in 2014 and the panel data of 58 countries from 1997 to 2014,this paper makes a number of empirical tests on the existence of high value-added trends in the process of economic growth and manufacturing industry development,and all the corresponding analysis results do not support this statement.Furthermore,based on the sub-industry panel data of 19 OECD countries from 1995 to 2013,this paper also shows that,at least at the level of the main classes,there is no evidence to confirm that an industry is high(low)value-added in various or most countries,the higher(lower)value-added rate is only the inherent property of a few industries,and economic growth in high value-added industries is not faster than the others.Therefore,this paper holds that although economic growth and industrial structure transformation have many characteristics and even rules to follow,the profit-driven enterprise may not create a so-called high value-added trend,and increasing the value-added rate should not be one of the specific objectives of the government′s industrial upgrading policy.