考虑权重不确定性的珠三角地区水环境承载力评价:基于博弈论与云模型

Assessment of water environment carrying capacity in the Pearl River Delta region with considering weight uncertainty:based on game theory and cloud model

针对水环境承载力评价中不同赋权方法评价结果及等级认定差异问题,在现有水环境承载力评价赋权方法的基础上考虑权重计算的不确定性,用博弈论进行组合赋权,引入云模型进行改进,并以珠三角地区为例,对比分析博弈论-云模型赋权法与五种组合赋权法的评价结果,探究该方法在水环境承载力评价中的适用性。结果表明:(1)在水环境承载力评价中,博弈论-云模型赋权法考虑了单一赋权方法本身的局限性以及方法选择的主观不确定性,可用于当前对水环境承载力认识不足情况下的量化评价;(2)五种组合赋权法在珠三角地区水环境承载力等级评定中跨等级的区县共14个,占评价对象的16%,通过云相似度计算确定评价等级的方法可以降低人为分级的主观影响,客观地反映区域水环境承载力水平;(3)整体上,珠三角大部分地区水环境承载力处于基本可载水平,各区县承载力等级从Ⅱ级到Ⅳ级不等,空间上表现为中部低、东西高。将博弈论-云模型赋权法用于水环境承载力评价,其评价结果可以为水环境治理提供更加科学合理的决策依据。

Aiming at the problem that different assessment results and levels can be led with different weighting methods in WECC assessment.Based on the existing weighting methods,considering the uncertainty of weight calculation,the combined weight was calculated by introducing game theory,and cloud model was used to improve it.Taking PRD region as an example,such method was applied to WECC assessment and compared with the results of five combined weighting methods,to explore its applicability.The results indicated that:(1)in WECC assessment,the weighting method based on game theory and cloud model(WMGC)considers the limitations of single weighting method and the uncertainty caused by subjective selection,which is proved suitable for quantitative assessment of WECC under the condition of insufficient understanding.(2)There are 14 districts whose WECC levels with five combined weighting methods are different in the PRD region,accounting for 16%of the objects assessed in this paper.The comprehensive assessment results through similarity calculation can cut down the impact of subjective classification and more objectively reflect the regional WECC level.(3)Overall,the WECC in most of the PRD region is at basically loadable level,and WECC levels of all districts range fromⅡtoⅣ,with spatial distribution showing that it is lower in central areas.WMGC is applied to assess the WECC,and its results could be regarded as a kind of decision-making basis for water environment treatment which would be more scientific and reasonable.