经济政策不确定性与商业银行盈余管理

Uncertainty of Economic Policy and Earnings Management of Commercial Banks

本文通过我国30家上市商业银行2007—2018年半年度面板数据,实证分析了经济政策不确定性对商业银行盈余管理的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性会对商业银行盈余管理产生正向影响,经济政策不确定性越高,银行越倾向进行盈余管理。并且经济政策不确定性对银行盈余管理的影响程度与银行类型有关,相对国有银行,非国有银行的盈余管理行为受到经济政策不确定性的影响更大。进一步从监管约束视角对影响机制进行研究并发现,由于监管压力和营收波动,资本充足率会降低经济政策不确定性对盈余管理行为的正向影响,而收入结构多元化会加剧这一正向影响。本文实证结果表明,经济政策不确定性是导致银行会计信息质量下降的重要影响因素。

Based on the 2007-2018 semi-annual panel data of 30 listed commercial banks in China,this paper empirical⁃ly analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the earnings management of commercial banks.The study finds that eco⁃nomic policy uncertainty will have a positive impact on the earnings management of commercial banks.The higher the economic policy uncertainty,banks are more likely to carry out earnings management,and the impact of the degree of economic policy un⁃certainty on bank earnings management is related to the type of bank.Compared with state-owned banks,the earnings manage⁃ment behavior of non-state-owned banks is more affected by economic policy uncertainty.This paper further studies the impact mechanism from the perspective of regulatory constraints and finds that due to regulatory pressure and revenue fluctuations,capi⁃tal adequacy ratio will reduce the positive impact of economic policy uncertainty on earnings management behavior,and the di⁃versification of income structure will exacerbate this positive impact.The empirical results of this paper show that the uncertain⁃ty of economic policy is an important factor leading to the decline in the quality of bank accounting information.