基于模糊综合评价理论的装配式建筑施工进度风险管理

Construction Schedule Risk Management of Prefabricated Building Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Theory

在综合国内外研究文献及实际案例分析的基础上,提炼出装配式建筑施工进度存在5类主要影响因素,并运用层次分析法对风险因素进行重要性评价,结合模糊理论中隶属度的概念,建立一套用于装配式建筑施工进度的具有系统性、普适性的模糊层次综合评价模型,从而对装配式建筑进行施工进度情况评价、风险因素分析以及进行施工进度风险管理。同时选取了深圳市裕璟幸福家园项目进行实例应用分析。研究成果可为装配式建筑施工进度风险管理提供量化参考依据。

On the basis of comprehensive domestic and international research literature and actual case studies,the five main influencing factors on the construction schedule of prefabricated buildings are extracted,and the importance of the risk factors is evaluated using hierarchical analysis,which is combined with the concept of subordination in fuzzy theory to establish a set of systematic and universal fuzzy hierarchical comprehensive evaluation model for the construction schedule of prefabricated buildings.The construction schedule evaluation,risk factor analysis and construction schedule risk management are carried out.The project of Yujing Xingfu Home in Shenzhen is selected for application analysis.The research results can provide a quantitative reference for the construction schedule risk management of prefabricated buildings.