“特朗普主义”的终结?

The End of the Trump Doctrine?

自特朗普2016年上任以来,美国外交政策经历了一系列急剧调整,造成了美国与世界关系的震荡。四年任期内,特朗普掀起了全球性的贸易战、从各种多边合作机制中“退出”,修建边境墙,重塑美国的同盟体系,加剧对华战略竞争。这一系列外交行动既体现了特朗普总统强烈的个人风格,也折射出美国外交战略的转型,即特朗普主义。特朗普主义的核心理念是“美国优先”,特朗普将商业的“丛林状态”和谈判法则转移到国际关系领域,助推了地缘政治回归的趋势,将大国博弈视为美国外交与安全战略的头等挑战,通过对等交易、极限施压等策略实现美国相对收益的最大化。特朗普主义强调发展美国的军事、经济等硬实力,以实力求和平,以发展求繁荣,推动产业回流美国。特朗普主义夹杂着里根主义、杰克逊主义以及尼克松主义的要素,标志着美国在冷战后从理想主义向现实主义、从国际主义到孤立主义的周期性转变,以战略性收缩来消解“后美国时代”的挑战,调适美国内部矛盾,调整美国与世界的关系。特朗普主义尚未形成一种新的外交传统,但在国际关系处于历史性变革之际,其对美国政治经济制度以及国际秩序的“极限施压”,也有可能促成美国外交战略的变迁。2020年大选是对特朗普总统本人的投票,而非对特朗普主义的检测,特朗普主义的遗产将成为美国外交政策的基本因素,在一定时间内发挥重要的作用。

Since Trump took office in 2016,U.S.foreign policy has undergone a series of drastic adjustments,which led to an earthquake of the relations between U.S.and the world.During his four-year tenure,Trump has launched a global trade war,“exited”from various multilateral cooperation mechanisms,built the border wall,reshaped the U.S.alliance system,and intensified the strategic competition with China.These diplomatic actions not only reflect Trump s strong personal character,but also reveal the transformation of U.S.diplomatic strategy,which could be defined as the“Trump Doctrine”.The essence of the Trump Doctrine is“America First”.Trump embraces“the law of jungle”in business as well as the rules of negotiation,and introduces them to the fields of international relations,boosting the return of geopolitics.He sees the game of great powers as the primary challenge to America s diplomatic and security strategy,and tries to maximize America s benefits by employing strategies such as peer-to-peer transactions and extreme pressure,etc.Trump Doctrine emphasizes the development of U.S.hard power by military and economic growth,seeking peace with strength and prosperity with development,and promotes the transfer of industries back to the United States.Trump Doctrine is mixed with elements of Reaganism,Jacksonism,and Nixonism.It marks the cyclical transition of the United States from idealism to realism,and from internationalism to isolationism after the Cold War.It adopts strategic contraction to deal with the challenges of the“post-American era”,resolve the domestic problems and adjust the relationship between the United States and the world.Trump Doctrine has not yet become a new diplomatic tradition,but as international relations are undergoing historical transformation,the“extreme pressure”from Trump Doctrine on the U.S.political-economic system and international order may also contribute to the changes in U.S.diplomatic strategy.The 2020 election is a contest for President Trump himself,not an examination of Trump Doctrine.The legacy of Trump Doctrine is going to become a basic factor in U.S.foreign policy and play an important role in a considerable period of time.