“一带一路”背景下西藏边境贸易商品结构与贸易潜力分析

On the Commodity Structure and Trade Potential of Tibet's Border Trade in the Context of"the Belt One Road"Initiative

西藏是“一带一路”和南亚大通道建设的重要节点,研究西藏边境贸易商品结构与贸易潜力不仅可以深化中国西藏与南亚区域间的经贸合作关系,更有助于推动我国“一带一路”建设。文章利用2010-2018年西藏边境贸易进出口数据,从比较优势指数等方面深入分析了西藏边境贸易的商品结构,并通过建立引力模型,评估西藏边境贸易潜力。结果表明:①2015年的尼泊尔大地震对西藏边境贸易产生了严重影响,使得西藏边境进出口贸易发生明显的变化;②西藏边境贸易进出口产品结构年际变化呈现出明显不规律性;③西藏与尼泊尔贸易潜力为“潜力再造型”,发展商品贸易潜力有限;西藏与不丹、印度的贸易潜力为“潜力开拓型”,在发展双边贸易方面将有很大的空间。研究认为未来西藏边境贸易应该强化交通基础建设,完善边境口岸功能,优化商品结构,借助“一带一路”建设机遇,提升边境贸易潜力。

Tibet is an important region in the construction of"the Belt and Road"and the South Asia Grand Corri⁃dor,therefore,the research of the commodity structure and trade potential of Tibet's border trade can not only deepen the economic and trade cooperation between China's Tibet and South Asia,but also help promote the Chi⁃na's construction of"the Belt and Road".By using the import and export data of Tibet's border trade in 2010-2018,an analyze has been done on the commodity structure of Tibet's border trade in terms of comparative ad⁃vantage index and other aspects,and evaluates the trade potential by establishing a gravity model.The results show that:①the earthquake in Nepal in 2015 had a serious impact on Tibet's border trade,resulting in remark⁃able changes in the Tibet's border import and export trade;②The interannual variation in the import and export commodity structure of Tibet's border trade displayed irregularities;③China's Tibet-Nepal's potential for fur⁃ther exploring commodity trade is limited,while there is large room for further development in the bilateral trade of China's Tibet-Bhutan and China's Tibet-India.Thus,it is necessary for Tibet's border trade to strengthen the traffic infrastructure construction,improve the functions of border ports,optimize the commodity structure,and take advantage of"the Belt and Road"construction opportunities to increase its potential in the future.