西藏新环保政策对主要大气污染物的减排效应研究

On the Effect of Tibet's New Environmental Protection Policy on the Reduction of Major Air Pollutants

为了响应中央第六次西藏工作会议提出的“生态保护第一”新发展思想,西藏自治区政府制定了相应的新环保政策。研究利用双重差分分析法与合成分析法,检验了新环保政策在“加大对青藏高原空气污染源的控制和治理”这一具体会议精神上的响应效果。双重差分法确认了新环保政策对三种主要废气污染物在单位GDP上的排放具有明显的抑制效应,且该抑制效应主要来自强制性的规制政策与行政命令;合成分析法利用反事实框架进一步确认了新环保政策与其中两种主要污染物在单位GDP上的减排存在因果效应。基于以上分析结论,就西藏地区进一步优化环境治理提出了相应的政策建议。

In response to the new development idea of"ecological protection is top important task"put forward by the Sixth Tibet Work Forum of the CPC Central Committee,the government of the Tibet Autonomous Region has formulated corresponding new environmental protection policy.A research has been done by using Differencesin-Differences(DID)and synthetic analysis to inspect the effect of the new environmental protection policy,which is the response to a decision of the forum"to strengthen the control and management of air pollution sourc⁃es on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau".The Differences-in-Differences(DID)analysis confirms that the new environ⁃mental protection policy has obvious inhibition effect on the emission of three major exhaust pollutants per unit of GDP,and that the inhibition effect is mainly brought by the mandatory regulatory policy and executive order.The synthetic analysis further confirms the causal effect of the new environmental protection policy and the re⁃duction of two major pollutants per unit of GDP by using the counterfactual framework.Based on the analysis conclusions above,the article puts forward some corresponding policy proposals for further optimizing environ⁃mental governance in Tibet as well.