摘要
利用ASD模型,将CanESM2、CNRM-CM5、GFDL-ESM3M和MIROC-ESM-CHEM四种大气环流模式(GCM)输出的低、中、高浓度排放情景下的气候因子统计降尺度到雅砻江流域的15个气象站点,模拟基准期的逐日降水并与实测值进行比较,对比分析了4种GCM对研究区域的降水模拟效果,同时预测了流域未来2021-2100年的降水变化。结果表明,各模式在雅砻江的适用性结果为MIROC>GFDL>CNRM>CanESM;雅砻江流域未来降水将呈现增加的趋势,且随着排放浓度的升高,降水增幅增大。
By using the ASD model,the statistical factors of the climate factors in the low,medium,and high concentration emission scenarios output from the four general circulation models(GCM)of CanESM2,CNRM-CM5,GFDL-ESM3M,and MIROC-ESM-CHEM are downscaled to the Yalong River basin at 15 weather stations,the daily precipitation in the reference period is simulated and compared with the measured values.The effects of 4 GCMs on the simulation of precipitation in the study area are compared and analyzed.At the same time,the precipitation of the basin in the future 2021-2100 years is predicted.The results show that the applicability of each model on the Yalong River is MIROC>GFDL>CNRM>CanESM;the future precipitation of the Yalong River basin will show an increasing trend,and the precipitation will increase as the concentration of emissions increases.
作者
曹琛
岳青华
郭靖
闫宝伟
杨百银
马良
CAO Chen;YUE Qing-hua;GUO Jing;YAN Bao-wei;YANG Bai-yin;MA Liang(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China;East China Investigation and Design Institute, Hangzhou 311122, China;China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2020年第12期21-26,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402708)
水电工程水文气象重大关键技术应用研究(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02)。
关键词
ASD
大气环流模式
雅砻江流域
统计降尺度
未来降水
ASD
general circulation model
Yalong River Basin
statistical downscaling
future precipitation
