基于引力模型的中新中澳乳制品贸易影响因素分析

Influencing Factors of Dairy Trade between China,Singapore and Australia based on the Gravity Model

近年来,中国与新西兰、澳大利亚乳制品贸易日益频繁,尤其自《中新自由贸易协定》《中澳自由贸易协定》签署后,新西兰和澳大利亚分别成为中国乳制品进口来源的第一和第二大国,同时中国也向新西兰和澳大利亚出口具有比较优势的乳制品,三国乳制品贸易往来更加密切。基于这一视角,从研究中国、新西兰、澳大利亚乳制品贸易的影响因素入手,通过构建中新澳乳制品贸易引力模型,采用2009-2018年面板数据分析检验经济规模、人口规模、地理距离、人均GDP差异对中新、中澳乳制品贸易额的影响;分别采用2004-2018年数据、 2009-2018年数据分析《中新自由贸易协定》《中澳自由贸易协定》的签署对中新、中澳乳制品贸易的影响。研究发现,经济规模、地理距离、人口规模、人均GDP差异对双边乳制品贸易分别具有不同的作用;自由贸易协定对双边乳制品贸易的影响有待商榷。基于这一实证结果提出了促进中国发展乳制品对外贸易、扭转当前贸易逆差局势的政策建议。

In recent years,China's dairy trade with New Zealand and Australia has become more and more frequent.Especially since the signing of China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement and China-Australia Free Trade Agreement,New Zealand and Australia have become the first and second largest countries in China's import sources respectively.At the same time,China also exports dairy products with comparative advantages to New Zealand and Australia,and the dairy trade between the three countries is closer.Based on this perspective,this paper studied the influencing factors of dairy trade in China,New Zealand and Australia,constructed the gravity model of dairy trade between China,New Zealand and Australia,and analyzed the influence of economic scale,population size,geographical distance and per capita GDP difference on the dairy trade value of China,New Zealand and Australia by using the panel data from 2009 to 2018;using the data from 2004 to 2018 and the data from 2009 to 2018 respectively,this paper analyzed the impact of the signing of China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement and China-Australia Free Trade Agreement on the dairy trade between China,New Zealand and Australia.The results showed that:economic scale,geographical distance,population size,per capita GDP differences have different effects on bilateral dairy trade;the impact of FTA on bilateral dairy trade remains to be discussed.Based on the empirical results,some policy suggestions were put forward to develop China's dairy products foreign trade and reverse the current trade deficit situation.