养老保险缴费率、经济增长与养老金替代率——兼论政策缴费率与实际缴费率的关系

Pension Contribution Rate,Economic Growth and Pension Replacement Rate:On the Relationship Between Policy Contribution Rate and Actual Contribution Rate

本文构建世代交叠一般均衡模型,在现收现付制下探讨养老保险政策缴费率与实际缴费率的关系,考察降低缴费率对经济增长和养老金替代率的影响。研究发现,政策缴费率与实际缴费率的关系取决于政策缴费率对做实缴费基数的作用强度;只要缴费率不过于低,降低缴费率将导致经济增长率和养老金替代率一升一降,无法同时实现维持基金收支平衡、促进经济增长和提高制度保障水平三个目标,意味着降费率存在政策目标上的“不可能三角”。本文研究结果对于综合评价养老保险降费率政策的经济效应、树立多目标协同发展的缴费率调整理念具有重要启示意义。

We construct an overlapping generation model to investigate the relationship between pension policy contribution rate and actual contribution rate,as well as their impact on the economic growth and the pension replacement rate.We find that the relationship between the policy contribution rate and the actual contribution rate depends on how strongly the policy contribution rate affects the contribution base.As long as the contribution rate is not too low,the contribution rate reduction would cause economic growth and pension replacement rate to rise and fall,indicating that the policy objectives of maintaining the pension fund balanced,stimulating economic growth,and increasing the protection level of the pension system cannot achieve simultaneously.Our study is of great significance for comprehensively assessing the economic effects of reducing pension contribution rate and for establishing a multi-objective coordinated development concept of contribution rate adjustment.