新型冠状病毒肺炎在广西的流行过程及聚集性分析

Analysis of epidemic process and aggregation of COVID-19 in Guangxi

目的分析广西新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的流行时间分布规律及聚集性。方法从广西战"疫"大数据平台下载病例个案信息,根据确诊时间和流行病学资料绘制疫情时序图,分析疫情流行特点、趋势以及病例聚集性。其中第一个潜伏期时间段为LI期(2020年1月23日-2月5日);第二个潜伏期时间段为L2期(2020年2月6-19日);第三个潜伏期时间段为L3期(2020年2月20日-3月4日)。结果截至2020年3月4日,广西13个地级市(除崇左市)共报告COVID-19确诊病例252例。不同城市COVID-19的流行时间段不同,南宁市、桂林市和河池市在L1、L2和L3期均有确诊病例,柳州市、北海市、玉林市、防城港市、钦州市、贵港市和来宾市在L1、L2期有确诊病例,而梧州市、百色市和贺州市仅在L1期有确诊病例;从占比来看,除河池市和来宾市在L2期的确诊病例高于L1、L3期,其余城市的确诊病例均从L1期到L3期依次减少。除百色市外,其余各市均出现聚集病例,共50起148例,占总病例数的58.73%。其中北海市、南宁市、桂林市和柳州市的聚集病例数较多。结论广西各地COVID-19流行时间、特征和聚集性有所不同,虽疫情得到一定控制,但各地区应该根据自身疫情特点继续完善防控措施。

Objective Temporal distribution and clustering of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Guangxi were analyzed.Methods The case information was obtained from Guangxi COVID-19 big data platform.The time series of the epidemic was plotted according to the time of diagnosis and epidemiological information,and the characteristics of clustering infection were described.The first latent period is called L1(January 23-February 5,2020);the second latent period is called L2(February 6-19,2020);the third latent period is called L3(February 20-March 4,2020).Results On March 4,2020,COVID-19 was reported in 13 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi(except Chongzuo city).There were252 confirmed cases,and the epidemic time in different cities had its own characteristics.The time course of the COVID-19 epidemic in different cities is different.Nanning,Guilin and Hechi have confirmed cases in L1,L2 and L3.Liuzhou,Beihai,Yulin,Fangchenggang,Qinzhou,Guigang and Laibin have confirmed cases in L1 and L2,while Wuzhou,Baise and Hezhou only have confirmed cases in L1.For the perspective of the proportion,except for Hechi and Laibin,the confirmed cases in L2 are higher than those in L1 and L3.During the period,the confirmed cases in other cities decreased from L1 to L3.With the exception of Baise,a total of 148 cases,accounting for 58.73%,were clustered.Beihai,Nanning,Guilin and Liuzhou had more clustered cases.Conclusions The epidemic timeline and clustering characteristics of COVID-19 in Guangxi varied from region to region.Although the epidemic in Guangxi has been controlled,each region should continue to improve the prevention and control measures according to its own epidemic characteristics.