2019年俄远东联邦区经济形势分析

Economic Situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2019

2019年远东联邦区主要宏观经济指数保持平稳,个别领域表现出不稳定迹象。得益于采矿项目的实施和船舶制造、飞机制造、军事工业综合体合同的履行,工业生产增速超过全俄水平。投资保持温和增长,外国投资者的兴趣与采矿项目特别是燃料动力项目的制定,以及出口商品的生产有关。在建筑市场规模萎缩的背景下,住房建设业复苏。航空、铁路、海上运输业发展势头良好。居民实际收入持续缓慢增长。农作物产量下降,导致农业生产规模下滑。由于国际市场大宗商品出口价格下跌,外贸活跃度低迷。远东联邦区的人口继续减少,这既是移民外流的结果,也是人口自然再生产指标恶化的结果。原文发表于俄罗斯《空间经济》杂志2020年第2期①,经作者同意在《西伯利亚研究》以中文刊发。

In 2019,the main macroeconomic indexes of the Russian Far Eastern Federal District remained stable,and some sectors showed signs of instability.Thanks to the implementation of mining projects and the fulfillment of shipbuilding,aircraft manufacturing,military industrial complex contracts,the growth rate of industrial production had exceeded the level of all-Russia.Investment had maintained a moderate growth.The interest of foreign investors was related to the formulation of mining projects,especially fuel power projects,and the production of export commodities.In the context of the shrinking construction market,the housing construction industry had recovered.The aviation,the railway,the maritime transportation industry were developing well.The actual income of residents continued to grow slowly.The decline in crop production had led to a decline in the scale of agricultural production.Due to the decline in the prices of major export commodities in the international market,the activity of foreign trade was sluggish.The population of the Far Eastern Federal District continued to decrease,which was not only the result of the outflow of immigrants,but also the result of the deterioration of the natural reproduction indicators of the population.The original text was published in the second issue of Russia’s magazine Space Economics in 2020,and published in China’s magazine Siberian Studies with the author’s consent.