中国旅游产业政策有效性实证研究

Empirical Study on Effectiveness of China's Tourism Industry Policy

旅游产业政策旨在规范行业发展,引导产业上水平,优化产业结构,其实施效应就成为关注的核心,但哪些因素影响旅游产业政策的有效性?这些影响因素的作用程度是否有着一致性?在考虑旅游产业政策影响因素的基础上,构建旅游产业政策有效性影响因素测度的面板回归模型,利用我国31省(市、自治区)2001—2016年数据进行检验。结果发现:旅游财政投入能极大地促进旅游产业发展;由中央政府和地方政府颁布的不同层级旅游产业政策具有时效性差异,中央旅游产业政策具有时滞性,滞后期为一年,而地方旅游产业政策具有即时有效性;旅游产业政策空间分布及有效性存在东、中、西区域性差异。基于此,加大旅游产业财政投入力度、优化旅游财政支出结构可有效地促进旅游业的快速发展;根据不同主体旅游产业政策的特点,制定适宜性旅游政策,可提高旅游产业政策实施效益;各省之间应在寻找共性发展道路的同时探索特色发展路线,以保证旅游业持续健康均衡发展。

The tourism industry policy aims at standardizing the industry development,guiding the industry upgrading and optimizing the industry structure.Implementation effect of the tourism industry policy becomes the focus of attention,but what factors affect effectiveness of the policy?Is there consistency in the degree to which these factors play a role?On the basis of considering influencing factors of the tourism industry policy,this paper constructs a panel regression model to measure influencing factors of effectiveness of the policy,and uses data of 31 provinces and cities from 2001 to 2016 to test the model.The study finds out that tourism financial input can greatly promote the tourism industry development.Different levels of the tourism industry policy issued by central government and local government have timeliness difference,the central tourism industry policy has time lag,the lag period is one year,and the local tourism industry policy has immediate effectiveness.Spatial distribution and effectiveness of the tourism industry policy exist regional differences between the east and the west.Based on this,it is necessary to increase financial input of the tourism industry and optimize tourism financial expenditure structure,which can effectively promote rapid development of the tourism industry.According to characteristics of different subjects of the tourism industry policies,appropriate tourism policies should be formulated to improve implementation efficiency of the tourism industry policies.At the same time,each province is seeking common development path and exploring characteristic development route to ensure sustainable,healthy and balanced tourism development.