产品异质性、目的地收入水平与汇率不完全传递

Heterogeneity of Commodities,Income Level of Destinations and Incomplete Pass-through of Exchange Rate

汇率传递程度影响汇率对贸易收支的调节效果,产生“汇率调节之谜”。构建纳入产品异质性和目的地收入水平差异的汇率传递模型,考察出口产品质量、技术复杂度和出口市场集中度三个产品异质性指标对汇率传递的影响,并探究出口目的地收入水平差异对汇率传递的影响。研究发现:整体而言,我国出口产品表现出较高的汇率传递效应,汇率传递系数高达97.2%;出口产品质量显著抑制汇率传递效应,而技术复杂度和市场集中度不影响汇率传递水平;产品出口至高收入目的地时的汇率传递率要低于出口至中低收入目的地,且出口至高收入目的地时的产品质量对汇率传递的抑制作用更强。在此基础上,诠释了中国出现“汇率调节之谜”的原因,并从汇率政策和产业政策方面提出了建议。

Incomplete exchange rate pass-through reduces adjusting effect of exchange rate movement on trade balance,resulting in“Exchange Rate Adjustment Puzzle”.This paper develops a theoretical model of exchange rate pass-through to investigate how the quality of export commodities,technology sophistication and export market concentration affect the pass-through of exchange rate changes,and to explore how income level difference in destination countries impacts the pass-through.The study shows that there is a high exchange rate pass-through effect in China's export products in general,and the coefficient of exchange rate pass-through is higher than 97.2%.The quality of export products significantly inhibits the exchange rate pass-through,while the technology sophistication and export market concentration have no effect.The coefficients of exchange rate pass-through for products exported to high-income countries are lower than those for products exported to low and middle-income countries.In addition,the inhibiting effect of the quality of export products on the exchange rate pass-through is stronger when products are exported to high-income countries.On this basis,this paper explains reasons for the“Exchange Rate Adjustment Puzzle”in China,and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of exchange rate policy and industrial policy.