基于VAR模型的金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——以南宁市、昆明市、贵阳市为例

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model——Take Nanning,Kunming and Guiyang as Examples

金融发展与经济增长密切相关,研究二者之间的关系对于金融改革、经济增长具有重要的意义。基于VAR模型,利用存款余额、贷款余额、GDP数据,分别从脉冲响应函数和方差分解两方面对2001—2017年南宁市、昆明市、贵阳市的金融发展与经济增长关系进行实证研究,结果表明:南宁市的GDP变化除源于自身的惯性外,还源于存款余额和贷款余额,三者均对GDP的变化有较大影响;而贵阳市的GDP变化主要源于自身的惯性;昆明市的GDP变化短期内受自身的惯性影响较大,长期内则是受存款余额的影响较大。

Financial development is closely related to economic growth.It is of great significance to study the relationship between financial development and economic growth for financial reform and economic growth.Based on VAR model,using the data of deposit balance,loan balance and GDP,this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Nanning,Kunming and Guiyang from 2001 to 2017 from two aspects of impulse response function and variance decomposition,the results show that:in addition to its own inertia,Nanning's GDP changes also come from the balance of deposits and loans,all of which have a great impact on the change of GDP;while the GDP change of Guiyang mainly comes from its own inertia;the GDP change of Kunming city is greatly affected by its own inertia in the short term,and the deposit balance in the long term.