固定源排放负荷测量的不确定性对河流断面氮磷模拟影响研究

Impact of Uncertainty of Measurement of Point Source Emission Load on Nitrogen and Phosphorus Simulation of River Section

以位于保定市的府河流域作为案例研究,利用2013—2016年保定市固定源排放数据,根据测量允许的不同误差限,生成具有不同偏差的固定源排放序列,运用SWAT模型分析排放负荷测量的不确定性对下游河流氮磷浓度模拟造成的影响。研究发现,当固定源排放负荷测量的不确定性增大时,在下游断面的氮磷模拟变化范围都有所上升,但对总磷的负荷模拟比对氨氮、总氮的负荷模拟影响要小。研究流域污染负荷时,氨氮、总氮、总磷的固定源排放测量相对误差限建议分别不超过20%、10%、20%。

In this study,the Fuhe watershed in Baoding city is taken as a case area.Based on the 2013—2016 data of Baoding city's point source emission,according to the different error limits allowed by the measurement,a series of point source emissions with different deviations is generated.SWAT is used to analyze the impact on the simulation of nitrogen and phosphorus concentration in the downstream river when there is uncertainty in the emission load measurement.It is found that when the uncertainty of load measurement increases,the simulation range of nitrogen and phosphorus in the downstream section increases,but the load simulation of total phosphorus has less influence than that of ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen.It concludes that when the research content is the pollution load,the relative error limit of point source emission measurement of ammonia nitrogen,total nitrogen and total phosphorus are not more than 20%,10%and 20%respectively.