国际原油价格对中国农产品价格影响机制研究

Research on the influence mechanism of international crude oil price on China's agricultural products price

随着中国对外开放程度的逐渐提高,中国农产品价格受国际原油价格的影响日益增大。分析了国际原油价格影响中国农产品价格的3种机制,分别建立了国际原油价格与中国农产品总体价格、大豆价格和油菜子价格的VAR模型,并进行了脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。结果表明,国际原油价格在短期内对中国农产品价格会产生同向影响,但一段时间后会产生反向影响。同时,通过影响生物燃料价格进而影响农产品总体价格是国际原油价格影响中国农产品价格的重要途径。最后,就如何稳定中国农产品价格提出了相关建议。

With the gradual improvement of China’s opening to the outside world,the price of China’s agricultural products was increasingly affected by the price of international crude oil.Three mechanisms by which international crude oil price affect China’s agricultural products price were analyzed.VAR models of international crude oil price and China’s overall agricultural products price,soybean price and rapeseed price were established,and impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis were performed.The results showed that changes in international crude oil price would have the same effect on China’s agricultural products price in the short term,but would have the negative effect after a period of time.At the same time,affecting the overall price of agricultural products by affecting the price of biofuels was an important way for international crude oil price to affect China’s agricultural products price.Finally,it put forward suggestions on how to stabilize the price of China’s agricultural products.