基于贝叶斯网络的商场火灾概率估算研究

Research on estimation of fire probability in Shopping Mall based on Bayesian network

针对人员密集场所之一商场的火灾问题,分析了商场火灾的特点,对火灾致灾因子进行分析,构建商场火灾的贝叶斯网络模型,采用国家统计局及《中国消防年鉴》《佛山统计年鉴》多年统计数据计算节点的初始概率,根据贝叶斯网络的传递原则计算商场火灾的发生概率。结果表明,贝叶斯方法可有效应用到火灾风险分析与管理中。

In view of the shopping malls-one of the crowded places,the characteristics of the fire in the mall,the analysis of the fire hazard factors,and the Bayesian network model of the mall fire were constructed.Use the National Bureau of Statistics and the"China Fire Yearbook"and"Foshan Statistical Yearbook"multi-year statistical data to calculate the initial probability of the node,and according to the Bayesian network transmission principle,calculate the probability of the occurrence of the mall fire.The results show that the Bayesian method can be effectively applied to fire analysis.