2014—2019年济南市猩红热时空扫描聚集性分析

Spatiotemporal scanclustering analysis on Scarlet fever in Jinan,2014-2019

目的对2014—2019年山东省济南市猩红热的流行病学和时空聚集性进行分析,为猩红热的防控工作提供依据。方法从国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统中获取济南市2014—2019年猩红热疫情资料,采用描述性流行病学方以及时空重排扫描统计方法分析猩红热的流行特征和时空分布特征,计算不同年份各乡镇(街道)猩红热发病的RR值,绘制RR值等高线地图。结果2014—2019年济南市累计报告猩红热9715例,期间年发病数与发病率总体呈现逐渐上升趋势,每年均出现冬季和春季2个季节性发病高峰。时空聚集性分析探测到8个时空聚集区,其中2017年3月至2019年12月间在历城、历下区聚集性最强(RR=3.45,LLR=577.88,P<0.001)。2014—2019年期间各年RR值等高线地图分布相似,RR值密集度最高的地区位于济南中部。结论2014—2019年济南市猩红热中部地区高发,具有明显的时空聚集性,济南中部、西南部及东部地区存在聚集区,有向东部章丘和西南部平阴扩散的趋势。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of scarlet fever in Jinan,from 2014-2019,and to provide a basis for scarlet fever prevention and control.Methods The case data of scarlet fever in Jinan during 2014-2019 were extracted from the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System.Descriptive epidemiology and spatiotemporal rearrangement scanning methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of scarlet fever.The RR values of scarlet fever in different towns(streets)were calculated,and the contour map of RR value was drawn.Results A total of 9715 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Jinan from 2014 to 2019.During this period,the number of cases and the incidence rate showed a gradual increase,with two seasonal peaks in the winter and spring each year.Spatiotemporal clustering analysis detected a total of eight spatiotemporal aggregation areas,and the strongest one was in Licheng and Lixia Districts,from March 2017 to December 2019(RR=3.45,LLR=577.88,P<0.001).The relative risk maps in each year from 2014 to 2019 were similar,and the areas with the highest risk were located in the central area of Jinan.Conclusion From 2014 to 2019,scarlet fever is highly prevalent in the central area of Jinan,with obvious spatial and temporal clustering.There are clustering areas in the central,southwest and eastern areas of Jinan,and there was a tendency for the disease to spread to Zhangqiu in the east and Pingyin in the southwest.