美国货币政策对新兴市场国家的溢出效应: 资本流动视角

Spillovers from U.S.Monetary Policy to Emerging Market Economies:From the Perspectives of Capital Flows

随着全球金融一体化程度的不断加深,美国货币政策对新兴市场国家资本流动的影响力逐渐显现。特别是2008年全球金融危机后,如何应对美国货币政策引发的资本流动冲击是新兴经济体面临的重大挑战。美国宽松的货币政策使得大规模资本流入新兴市场,造成这些国家利率下降、汇率升值和资产价格上涨,最终导致经济过热,影响渠道包括利率渠道、汇率渠道、投资组合再平衡渠道、预期渠道、流动性渠道、抵押品渠道和贸易渠道。美国货币政策对新兴市场国家资本流动的溢出效应大小主要取决于接收国的贸易发展水平、汇率制度、金融发展和资本账户开放程度。对于不同类型的资本流动,美国货币政策的影响存在异质性。新兴经济体应综合使用资本流动管理工具或采取国际货币政策协调举措来应对美国货币政策带来的冲击。

With the integration of the global financial market, the Fed’s monetary policy has had an impact on capital flows to emerging market economies. After the global financial crisis in 2008, how to deal with the impact of capital flows triggered by U.S. monetary policy has been a major challenge to emerging economies. Through the interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, portfolio rebalancing channel, signaling channel, liquidity channel, collateral channel and trade channel, the Fed’s easy monetary policy has caused large-scale capital to stream into emerging markets, which has resulted in falling interest rates, exchange rate appreciation, increasing asset prices, and subsequently overheating economies. The magnitude of the spillover effect on capital flows mainly relies on the level of trade development, financial development, capital account opening and exchange rate system in the recipient country. Between different types of capital flows, there is significant and substantial heterogeneity. Emerging economies should use capital flow management tools and international economic policy coordination to deal with the influence of U.S. monetary policy.