财政压力、户籍制度改革与劳动生产率——农业劳动力转移的视角

Fiscal Pressure,Household Registration Reform and Labor Productivity:From the Perspective of Agricultural Labor Mobility

农业人口大规模转移支撑了改革开放以来中国经济的高速增长,但户籍制度成为阻碍农业人口进一步转移的关键制度因素,严重制约了劳动生产率提高。文章基于1999~2010年城市面板数据,采用双重差分法分析了户籍制度改革对劳动生产率的影响。结果表明,户籍制度改革有利于提高非农业劳动生产率,这种效应在大城市和高城市化水平地区表现更明显,但对农业劳动生产率影响不显著。该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步的机制分析发现,户籍制度改革未影响农业劳动生产率的原因是改革没有触及福利体系,无法实现农业人口彻底转移,而现行财政体制是触及福利体系改革的重要阻碍。文章认为,实现中央与地方财政事权和支出责任匹配是户籍制度改革的关键。

The large-scale transfer of agricultural population has supported the rapid growth of China’s economy since the inception of reform and opening up. However, the household registration system has become a key institutional barrier to the further transfer of agricultural population, which has seriously restricted the improvement of labor productivity. Based on the urban panel data from 1999 to 2010, the paper uses the double difference method to analyze the impact of the household registration reform on labor productivity. The results are that the reform is conducive to improving nonagricultural labor productivity, and the effect is more pronounced in large cities and regions with high levels of urbanization, but it has no significant impact on agricultural labor productivity. The conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests. A further mechanism analysis shows that the reform doesn’t change the welfare system and can’t achieve the complete transfer. The current transfer payment system is an important obstacle to the reform of the welfare system. The realization of matching the financial authority and expenditure responsibility between the central and local governments is the key to the reform of household registration.