天保工程对中国木质林产品贸易的影响

Research on the Impact of Natural Forest Protection Project on China's Forest Product Trade

基于2000—2018年中国林产品贸易数据,分析天保工程对中国木质林产品贸易的影响。结果表明:天保工程期间,中国林木采伐量得以控制,国外林产品进口增加;俄罗斯是对华原木最大出口国,南太平洋及非洲国家成为重要原木贸易伙伴,中国与俄罗斯、新西兰以及南太平洋国家的贸易依存度增加;中国锯材、木浆进口增长较快,胶合板、纤维板进口先增后降,原木出口在天保工程实施前期低位平稳运行,2016年以后有增长趋势;木质林产品出口结构发生改变,初级加工品出口量减少,附加值相对较高的板材出口量显著增长;木制家具等终端林产品生产并未受到天保工程长期影响,但天保工程实施期出口增速下降明显。由此,提出优化木质林产品贸易布局、深度整合木质林产品全球价值链以及增加林木深加工等建议。

⑴Background——With the implementation of Natural Forest Protection Project,the reduction of raw material supply of Chinese forestry enterprises is facing a huge impact.At the same time,China has become the largest consumer of forest products in the world,and the contradiction between the supply of raw materials and the demand for forest products forces Chinese forestry enterprises to transform.⑵Methods——Taking the import and export trade situation of China's forest products as the research object,the import and export data of China's forest products from 2000 to 2018 were collected,and the trade of China's forest products was statistically analyzed from many levels,such as import and export volume,country and trend.⑶Results——First of all,the wooden forest products in Natural Forest Protection Project are analyzed from two aspects:import and export.In terms of imports,China's import volume continues to increase and logging volume remains stable.The average annual log import volume from 2000 to 2018 was 380.64 million/m3.Russia has been the largest exporter of Chinese logs since 2000-2018.It shows that the trade of industrial logs between China and Russia is frequent,and the overall trade situation is in a steady development trend,and the two countries have a good trend of trade development space.South Pacific and African countries have become China's important trading partners in the second phase of Natural Forest Protection Project.South Pacific and Oceania countries such as New Zealand,Papua New Guinea,and Equatorial Guinea have great potential for trade with China.Natural Forest Protection Project has increased the degree of trade dependence between China and Russia,New Zealand,the South Pacific and other countries.In particular,the trade dependence of Russia and New Zealand has grown rapidly and has become a mature trading partner of China.From 2000 to 2018,the degree of trade dependence was more than 40%,which remained at a high level.Papua New Guinea,Solomon Islands,Equatorial Guinea and other countries have even more than 90%dependence on China's trade.Malaysia and Australia were highly dependent on China's trade in the first phase of Natural Forest Protection Project,and gradually decreased in the later period.During Natural Forest Protection Project,the import volume of sawn timber,wood pulp and other products continued to increase.Secondly,from the perspective of exports,the average log export value was 8.06 million dollars from 2000 to 2018.The United States,Japan and South Korea are China's main exporters of wood forest products.The export structure of China's forest products has also changed.Since 2003,China's exports of forest products with relatively high added value have increased significantly.Natural Forest Protection Project has little impact on the production of wooden furniture,but the export growth rate has dropped significantly.Third,the import of Chinese logs is gradually opening up new markets while maintaining the supply in the traditional international market.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——First,the implementation of Natural Forest Protection Project has changed the trade structure of China's forest products.In Natural Forest Protection Project,China's log harvesting volume remained stable,and the log import volume increased significantly during the same period,more forest products with higher added value were exported.Second,Natural Forest Protection Project has increased trade dependence.China should focus on the layout of forest products trade and look for potential sources of logs.Third,in the long run,Natural Forest Protection Project has not had much negative impact on the Chinese furniture manufacturing industry at the level of raw material supply.However,the growth rate of wooden furniture exports continues to decline,and Chinese forest industry enterprises are required to grasp the domestic and foreign situation,and seek to transform and upgrade the industrial structure.