中国对越南机电产品出口贸易波动的影响因素分析

Analysis on influencing factors of Chinese export fluctuation of mechanical and electrical products to Vietnam

为了研究1997—2017年中国对越南机电产品出口波动的影响因素,运用CMS模型分四个阶段对我国对越南机电产品出口贸易波动的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:结构效应对我国对越南机电产品出口增长的贡献逐渐增大,2009年以来越南对机电产品需求的增加成为促进出口的最主要因素;竞争力效应和交叉效应对我国对越南机电产品出口的贡献相对较小,且呈持续下降趋势,在后期制约了我国对越南机电产品的出口;越南对我国需求增长较快的几类机电产品竞争力提升较缓慢。

In order to study the influencing factors of the fluctuations of the Chinese export status of mechanical and electrical products to Vietnam from 1997 to 2017,CMS model is used to analyze the influencing factors of Chinese export trade fluctuation of mechanical and electrical products to Vietnam in four stages.The results show that the contribution of structural effect to the export growth of mechanical and electrical products to Vietnam increases gradually,and the increase of Vietnamese demand for mechanical and electrical products has become the most important factor to promote export since 2009.The competitiveness effect and cross-effect have a relatively smaller contribution to the export of the mechanical and electrical products to Vietnam,and the trend continues to decline,which restricts the export in the later period.The Vietnamese competitiveness of several kinds of mechanical and electrical products with fast demand growth is improved slowly.