新冠肺炎疫情冲击下中国经济目标战略性调整研究

Strategic Adjustment of China's Economic Targets Under the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济系统的供给侧和需求侧都造成了严重打击。面对2020年全面建成小康社会和“十三五”规划的收官之年这一特殊时间节点,如何对经济目标体系进行战略性调整,以缓解新冠肺炎疫情对经济社会发展的负面冲击,是中国经济恢复内生活力和实现动能转换的关键。研究表明,在中国经济以目标引领为主要特征的发展体制下,经济目标不只是一个数字化的简单概念,更是一套系统的复杂体系。首先,经济目标体系的调整应当涉及量化高低、权重结构和时间层次三个方面:在量化高低方面,应合理设定各类经济目标的总量指标,尽量采取区间预设方式增强灵活性;在权重结构方面,各类经济目标的序次权重要进行权衡,关乎民生的目标要适当前置和强化;在时间层次上,短期目标和长期战略应当激励相容,且短期目标设计要确保长期战略规划的实现。其次,在当前防风险和促转型并存的压力下,未来经济目标体系调整的主导方向应当坚定不移锚定“六稳”和“六保”目标:以经济增长目标为压舱石,“稳预期”恢复信心;以就业目标为优先级,“稳就业”是民生之本;以“新基建”目标为催化剂,“稳投资”增强动力;以外贸目标为连通器,“稳外贸”夯实基础;以产业链安全与提升目标为安全阀,“稳增长”提供保障;以消费目标为新引擎,“稳消费”扩大内需。

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic severely hit both the supply side and the demand side of the economic system.Facing the special time node of the year when the well-off society will be built in an all-round way in 2020 and the 13th Five-Year Plan ends,how to adjust the economic target system strategically in order to alleviate the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic and social development becomes the key to China's economic recovery and energy conversion.According to the study,under the development system of China's economy characterized by target leading,the economic target is not only a simple concept of digitalization,but also a set of systematic and complex system.First of all,the adjustment of the economic target system should involve three aspects which are the quantitative level,the weight structure and the time level.In the aspect of the quantitative level,the total amount index of all kinds of economic targets should be set reasonably,and interval presupposition to enhance flexibility should be adopted;in the aspect of weight structure,the order right of all kinds of economic targets should be weighed,and the targets related to people's livelihood should be properly advanced and strengthened;and the time level,short-term targets and long-term strategies should be incentive and compatible,and the design of short-term targets should ensure the realization of long-term strategic planning.Secondly,under the pressure of risk prevention and transformation promotion at present,the leading direction of future economic target system adjustment should firmly anchor the targets of“six stability”and“six guarantees”:taking the economic growth target as the ballast,“stabilizing expectations”is to restore confidence;taking the employment target as the priority,“stabilizing employment”is the foundation of people's livelihood;taking the“new infrastructure”target as the catalyst,“stabilizing investment”strengthens the power;taking the foreign trade target as the connector,“stabilizing foreign trade”is the foundation;taking the industrial chain security and the promotion target as the safety valve,“stabilizing growth”is the guarantee;and taking the consumption target as the new engine,“stabilizing consumption”is to expand domestic demand.