经济增长、能源结构转型与二氧化碳排放——基于面板数据的经验分析

Economic Growth,Energy Structure Transformation and Carbon Dioxide Emission--Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data

本文基于新结构经济学理论,考虑不同发展阶段和要素禀赋结构的差异性,对经济增长对能源结构转型和二氧化碳排放的异质性作用进行研究。本文使用全球67个经济体1990—2018年的面板数据,运用联立方程模型实证检验经济增长对能源结构转型和二氧化碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:能源结构转型与经济增长呈U型关系,二氧化碳排放与经济增长呈倒U型关系,换言之,只有当经济增长跨过一定门槛才能实现能源结构转型和二氧化碳减排的双重红利,并且这一效应也存在于高收入经济体、低收入经济体和非资源型经济体。本文的研究结论为各经济体政策制定者在不同发展阶段下发挥政府因势利导的作用以实现能源结构转型和二氧化碳减排提供了理论依据。

Based on the new structural economics,this paper considers the differences of development stages and the factor endowment structure to study the heterogeneous effect of economic growth on energy structure transformation and carbon dioxide emission with the simultaneous equations model.Based on the panel data of 67 economies in the world from 1990 to 2018,this paper investigates the impact of economic growth on energy structure transformation and carbon dioxide emission.The empirical results show that energy structure transformation has a U-shaped relationship with economic growth,and carbon dioxide emissions have an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic growth.In other words,the double dividend of energy structure transformation and carbon dioxide emission reduction can be achieved when economic growth crosses a certain threshold,and this effect also exists in high income economies,low income economies and non-resource economies.The conclusions of this paper provide a theoretical basis for policy makers of various economies to play a role as a promising government at different stages of development to achieve clean energy development and carbon dioxide emission reduction.