科技创新、利用外资与资本配置效率——基于疫情危机和金融危机的分析

Technological Innovation,Foreign Capital and Capital Allocation Efficiency--Analysis Based on Epidemic Crisis and Financial Crisis

本文选取中国1997—2019年宏观经济时序数据为研究样本,以“非典”疫情危机、2008年全球金融危机为时间节点,运用聚类稳健标准误回归,实证分析1997—2003年、2004—2008年、2009—2019年三个阶段(即亚洲金融危机至“非典”疫情危机、“非典”疫情危机后至2008年金融危机、2008年金融危机后至新冠肺炎疫情危机),科技创新、利用外资与资本配置效率的关系。结果表明:科技创新和利用外资对资本配置效率的改善作用不具有长期性;在亚洲金融危机和2008年金融危机后,科技创新提高资本配置效率的能力显著优于利用外资;“非典”疫情危机后,外资改善资本配置效率的能力得到了保持,但是科技创新并不能提高资本配置效率。总体而言,科技创新能够显著提高金融危机后的资本配置效率,疫情危机后外资流入能够提高资本配置效率。以上结论对新冠肺炎疫情危机及可能发生的金融危机后,如何提高资本配置效率具有一定的启示意义。

Based on the data of 1997—2019 as the research sample,taking the SARS epidemic crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis as the time nodes,using the robust clustering standard error regression,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between technology innovation,foreign capital and capital allocation efficiency in three stages of 1997—2003,2004—2008 and 2009—2019,namely,from the Asian financial crisis to the SARS epidemic crisis,from the SARS epidemic crisis to the 2008 financial crisis,and from the 2008 financial crisis to COVID-19 epidemic crisis.The results show that technology innovation and foreign capital have no long-term effect on the improvement of capital allocation efficiency.After the Asian financial crisis and the 2008 financial crisis,the ability of innovation to improve the efficiency of capital allocation is significantly better than that of foreign capital.After the SARS crisis,the ability of foreign capital to improve the efficiency of capital allocation was maintained,but technological innovation cannot improve the efficiency of capital allocation.In general,technological innovation can significantly improve the capital allocation efficiency after financial crises,and the inflow of foreign capital after the epidemic crisis can improve the capital allocation efficiency.The above conclusions have some enlightenment on how to improve the efficiency of capital allocation after the COVID-19 epidemic crisis and the possible financial crisis.