基于Bayesian-SEM的驾车使用手机行为心理成因分析

Analysis on the Psychological Cause of Using Mobile Phones during Driving Based on Bayesian-SEM

为深入探究驾驶员在驾车过程中使用手机行为的形成因素,基于心理学视角在计划行为理论的基础上引入行为习惯、路况环境和风险感知等因素变量,构建了基于扩展计划行为理论(Ex-TPB)的驾驶员驾车使用手机行为贝叶斯结构方程模型(Bayesian-SEM)。分析各影响因素间关系及作用,使用面向驾驶员的423份问卷作为样本数据对所建模型进行分析评价,并将参数结果与传统结构方程模型估计结果进行对比。研究发现:在小样本情况下,本文所构建的模型能对驾驶员驾车使用手机行为心理成因进行较好的预测和解释;行为习惯变量对行为意向影响最大,归一化权重影响系数为0.238,对路况环境和风险感知的标准化影响系数分别为0.307和0.235;知觉行为控制、态度和主观规范对使用手机行为意向均有显著影响。

To comprehensively explore the influencing factors of the use of a driver of his mobile phone during driving,the driver behavior,road environment,and risk-aware factors were introduced into the theory of planned behavior from the psychology perspective.The Bayesian-structural equation model(Bayesian-SEM)for the use of mobile phones during driving based on the extended theory of planned behavior was constructed to analyze the relationship and effect of the influencing factors using 423 questionnaire data of drivers as sample data to analyze and evaluate the model.The parameter estimation results of the traditional estimation method using SEM and those of the method employed in this research were compared.The results show that the model developed in this work demonstrated better predictive ability and validity of the behavioral psychogenesis in case of small samples.Behavioral habit exhibited the greatest influence on the behavioral intention in which the normalized weight influence coefficient was 0.238.Behavioral habit also exhibited a great influence on the road environment and risk perception.The influence coefficients were 0.307 and 0.235 respectively.Perceptual behavior control,attitude,and subjective norm significantly influenced the behavior intent on the use of mobile phones during driving.