基于AHP的合资铁路运营管理模式选择研究

Selection of Operation Management Mode for Joint Venture Railways Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

本文采用层次分析法(AHP),从自管自营、委托运输和委托运营三种典型模式中选择合资铁路的运营管理模式。通过对六个影响因素的分析,建立了含目标层、准则层(6个指标)、次准则层(18个指标)和方案层(3个方案)的四级层次结构模型。采用专家打分法构造准则层的判断矩阵,同时,将已开通/在建合资铁路的实际数据作为样本,采用多元线性回归方法构造次准则层的判断矩阵,并基于样本按方案别的平均值构造方案层的判断矩阵。最后,对济青高铁进行案例分析,结果表明该线路采用委托运输模式的重要度最高,最有利于实现其线路能力利用与运营效益最高的目标,该结论与实际相符,验证了所提出方法的可行性和实用性。本文方法对其他合资铁路运营管理模式的选择及评价具有参考作用。

In this study,the analytic hierarchy process is utilized to select the operation management mode of a joint venture railway from three typical candidate modes,the self-management,entrusted transportation,and entrusted operation modes.Based on an analysis of six influencing factors,a four-layer hierarchy model including a target layer,criterion layer(six indicators),subcriterion layer(18 indicators),and scheme layer(three schemes)is developed.The expert scoring method is used to construct the judgment matrix of the criterion layer.Using the actual data of the joint venture railways(opened/under construction)as a sample,the judgment matrix of the subcriterion layer is constructed by the multiple linear regression method,while that of the scheme layer is constructed based on the average statistical values of the sample according to the schemes.Finally,case study results for the Jinan-Qingdao high-speed railway line show that the entrusted transportation mode has the largest importance and is most conducive to realize the highest capacity utilization and operation efficiency of the line.This conclusion is consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method.Our method can be used to select and evaluate the operation management mode of other joint venture railways.