德意志第二帝国的海权战略与英德冲突的根源

The Sea Power Strategy of the Second German Empire and the Origin of the Conflict Between Britain and Germany

作者针对德国海权战略诱发英德地缘竞争加剧的传导机制这一研究议题,对学界既有相关文献进行了系统综述。借助新古典现实主义的大战略框架,形成了关于英德冲突根源的解释机制:地缘格局→海权扩张的战略预期→德国崛起路径从战略克制、战略进取转向战略冒险→英国的制衡反馈→德国强化了原有的战略预期、进一步推进战略冒险→英德两国陷入螺旋冲突模式→德国陷入战略透支和海权崛起的失败。案例分析遵循过程追踪法,对德国如何走向海上战略冒险的历史进程进行理论分析,探究英德之间的战略互动进程及其影响变量,并提出以下观点:即使没有马汉的“海权论”,德国也会推进海权战略扩张;海军竞赛是英德陷入“修昔底德陷阱”的重要动力;当崛起国与霸权国都处于损失预期框架时容易形成螺旋冲突模式,当两国处于收益预期框架时容易受威慑逻辑主导;有利于崛起的权力转移应当以不增加体系制衡压力为重要参考点;陆上崛起国的海上战略转型可以实现与海上霸权国的战略稳定。

The research topic of this article is the transmission mechanism of the German sea power strategy which intensified the British-German geopolitical competition.This article systematically summarized the relevant literature,and with the help of the neoclassical realism grand strategy framework,put forward the roots of the conflict between Britain and Germany:geographical structure→strategic expectations of sea power expansion→the path of rise changed from strategic restraint and strategic advancement to strategic adventure→British feedback on checks and balances→Germany strengthened original strategic expectations and further advanced strategic adventure→British and German fell into a spiral conflict mode→Germany fell into the failure of strategic overdraft and the rise of sea power.The case analysis followed the process tracing method,analyzed the historical process of how Germany went for an maritime strategic adventure,explored the process of strategic interaction between Britain and Germany and the influencing variables.The article concludes that even without Mahan s“sea power theory”,Germany would also have promoted the strategic expansion of sea power;the naval race is an important driving force for Britain and Germany to fall into the“Thucydides trap”;when both the rising power and the hegemonic power are in the loss expectation framework,it is easy to fall into a spiral conflict mode and when the two countries are in the gain expectation framework,they are easily dominated by the logic of deterrence;the power transfer that is conducive to the rise should not increase the pressure of system checks and balances;the maritime strategic transformation of a rising country on land can achieve strategic stability with the maritime hegemony.