河北省大豆种植成本与收益分析

Analysis of Soybean Planting Cost and Benefit in Hebei Province

2019年大豆产业振兴计划提出后,扩大大豆种植面积,提升大豆自给水平是现阶段大豆发展的重要方向。基于河北省2009-2018年大豆生产成本收益数据,采用趋势分析和灰色关联模型分析方法对影响河北省大豆生产收益的成本因素进行关联动态分析,探究与成本收益的内在联系。结果发现,人工成本占比增速明显,物质与服务费用消耗逐年升高,生产成本偏高造成大豆产业进入微利时期;从关联度来看,土地成本、种子费用、农药费和租赁作业费与大豆收益关联度较高。最后针对结论提出合理规划土地、稳定农资市场、提高机械化水平的对策建议。

After the proposal of soybean industry revitalization plan in 2019,expanding soybean planting area and raising soybean self-sufficiency level are the important direction of soybean development at this stage.Based on the soybean production cost and benefit data of Hebei Province from 2009 to 2018,the trend analysis and grey correlation model analysis were used to analyze the cost factors affecting the soybean production benefit of Hebei Province to explore the internal relation of cost and benefit.The results showed that the proportion of labor cost had increased significantly,the consumption of material and service cost had increased year by year,and the high production cost had caused the soybean industry to enter the period of low benefit.In terms of correlation degree,land cost,seed cost,pesticide cost and leasing operation cost were highly correlated with soybean benefit.Finally,according to the conclusion,the countermeasures and suggestions for rational planning of land,stabilizing the agricultural material market,and improving the level of mechanization were put forward.