“十三五”规划舆情分析及其对“十四五”规划编制的启示

The public opinion analysis of the 13th Five-Year Plan and its inspiration to the 14th Five-year Plan

“十三五”规划是经济步入新常态后的第一个五年规划,反映并引导着舆论趋势。及时分析“十三五”规划的影响力,对于规划的效果评估以及“十四五”规划的编制具有重要意义。本文运用分词工具对“十三五”规划文本进行了关键词提取,将64个高频词划分为8个领域,进而以关键词为媒介度量居民和媒体关注度。从“十三五”规划内容来看,经济发展和人民生活领域占据了较大的篇幅,而经济、教育、技术和农业等是频率较高的词汇,体现出政策规划的内容侧重和指导思想演变。从居民关注度来看,社会公众更加关注经济发展、人民生活和科技文化领域,对旅游、基金、创业和大数据等主题较为关注,反映出社会经济发展和技术进步的影响下,社会产品服务的供给不充分问题;从媒体关注度上来看,报道多集中在经济发展、人民生活和体制创新领域,在就业、消费、资本和立法方面有着较高的负面情绪,反映了社会发展过程中的不平衡问题。最后结合“十三五”规划舆情分析提出对“十四五”规划的政策建议。

The 13th Five-Year Plan is the first five-year plan after the economy enters the new normal,which reflects and guides the trend of public attentiveness.The timely evaluation of the influence of the 13th Five-Year Plan has important sense to the evaluation of policy effect and the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan.This paper uses word segmentation tool to extract text keywords from the 13th Five-Year Plan,divides the plan into 8 fields and extracts 64 high-frequency words,then measures the residents'attentiveness and media attentiveness according to these keywords.From the content of the 13th Five-Year Plan,economic development and people's living areas occupy a large space,while economy,education,technology and agriculture are the high frequency vocabulary which reflects the content of policy planning and the evolution of guiding ideology.From the view of residents'attentiveness,the social public pays more attention to the fields of economic development,people's life and science,technology and culture,and pays more attention to the themes of tourism,funds,entrepreneurship and big data,which reflects the insufficient supply of social products and services under the influence of social and economic development and technological progress.From the view of media attentiveness,the reports focus on economic development,people's life and institutional innovation,and have high negative emotions in employment,consumption,capital and legislation,which reflect the imbalance in the process of social development.The final article combines the analysis of planning public opinion from 13th Five-Year Plan,and puts forward the policy suggestion to the 14th Five-Year Plan.