基于非线性拟合的泵站放江量预测及辅助决策平台开发应用

Development&Application of the Forecasting&Decision-Making Platform for Pumping Station Discharge Volume Based on Nonlinear Fitting

雨天防汛泵站放江量的准确预测不仅对泵站的管理和优化调度具有重要的指导意义,而且能提高对洪涝灾害的预防和应对能力。此研究在推理公式法的基础上提出放江量非线性拟合公式,并采用遗传算法求解模型,对管辖范围内的161座防汛泵站放江量进行预测研究。结果表明,在各种人为因素干扰和广泛应用场景下,该模型仍能准确预测各种降雨条件下泵站的放江量,具有较好的适宜性和工程价值。同时,以Web服务器为数据载体、网站为用户交互途径,兼顾泵站基本信息展示和降雨量-放江量于一体的防汛泵站辅助决策系统平台,能实现防汛泵站的信息化管理,为城市排水事业稳步、快速发展提供技术支持,具有较高的应用价值。

The accurate prediction of flood control pumping station discharge in rainy weather not only has important guiding significance for the management and optimization of pumping station,but also can improve the prevention and response ability of flood disaster.Based on the inference formula method,this research puts forward a nonlinear fitting formula for the discharge of the river,and uses a genetic algorithm to solve the model to predict the discharge of the 161 flood control pumping stations within the jurisdiction.The results show that the model can still accurately predict the discharge of the pumping station under various rainfall conditions under various humanfactors and extensive application scenarios. Ithas good suitability and engineering value. At thesame time, the Web server as the data carrier andthe website as the user interaction method, takinginto account the basic information display of thepumping station and the rainfall-discharge amountof the flood control system platform, can realizethe information management of the flood controlpumping station, which can provide technicalsupport for the steady and rapid development ofurban drainage with high application value.