中国城市收缩如何影响了劳动力工资差异?--基于全国人口普查和CHFS数据的分析

How Has Urban Shrinkage Affected Labor Wage Differential in China?--Analysis Based on National census and CHFS Data

随着人口跨区域流动,人口空间分布格局发生了新的变化,对区域平衡发展产生了重要影响。本文利用中国第五次和第六次人口普查数据,识别了中国的收缩城市,即常住人口长期流失的城市,同时结合中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,分析了收缩城市与非收缩城市之间劳动力工资的差异。研究发现:中国收缩城市劳动力平均工资低于非收缩城市33.08%。控制劳动力技能变量后,两类城市劳动力平均工资差异下降为19.84%,即劳动力技能差异约可以解释两类城市工资差异的2/5,这验证了低技能劳动力更容易在收缩城市集聚的假说。在增加控制城市产业结构、财政收支等宏观变量后,城市收缩对劳动力工资的影响不显著,即没有证据显示城市收缩会因为劳动力绝对数量的减少对劳动力工资水平产生负的影响。以上结论在东、中、西板块的城市之间存在差异,但总体趋势较为一致。

New changes have taken place in the spatial distribution of population with labor migration,which has had an important impact on the balanced development of regions.We use data from China’s fifth and sixth population census to identify shrinking cities in China,that is,cities with long-term resident population loss.At the same time,combined with China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data,we analyze the wage gap between shrinking cities and non-shrinking cities.Then we found that,the average wage in shrinking cities in China is 33.08%lower than that in non-shrinking cities.After controlling for labor skill variables,the average wage gap dropped to 19.84%,that is,the difference in labor skills can explain 2/5 of the difference in wages between the two types of cities.This validates the hypothesis that low-skilled labor is more likely to agglomerate in shrinking cities.After controlling for macro variables such as GDP,the impact of urban shrinkage on labor wages is not significant,that is,there is no evidence that urban shrinkage will have a negative impact on labor wages due to the decrease in the absolute number of labor.The above conclusions differ in the eastern,central and western regions,but the overall trend is relatively consistent.