继续增加财政转移性支出可以提高脱贫质量吗——基于生计抗逆力和CFPS数据的实证

Can Fiscal Transfers Improve the Quality of Poverty Alleviation?:Based on the Theory of Livelihood Resilience and the Data of CFPS

本文基于北京大学中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),根据生计抗逆力理论,构建了包括生计资本和生计决策两个维度15个指标的生计抗逆力指数,以此作为脱贫质量的代理变量,并将贫困群体分为长期贫困户、脱贫又返贫户、脱贫未返贫户、边缘户四种类型,检验财政转移性支出对四类贫困群体的生计抗逆力影响,进而揭示财政转移性支出与脱贫质量之间的关系。研究表明:财政转移性支出显著提高各类贫困群体的生计抗逆力,其中,对脱贫又返贫户的生计抗逆力提升程度最高;财政转移性支出对生计决策维度的作用明显高于生计资本维度;财政转移性支出与产业生产之间还未能形成良性互动关系以提升贫困群体的生计抗逆力;家庭规模和生产经营对贫困群体的生计抗逆力有着显著影响,而收入、消费、乡村治理等因素的影响不明显。

Based on the family tracking data of Peking University(CFPS),this paper constructs a livelihood resilience system,including 15 indicators from two dimensions of livelihood capital and livelihood decision-making.We divide the poor households into four types:chronic poverty,just out of poverty,just flipping into poverty,potential poverty,then compare and analyze the differences in the impact of fiscal transfer expenditure on the livelihoods of various poor households.Results show that:The fiscal transfer expenditure significantly improves the livelihood resilience of all kinds of poor groups,among which the resilience of returning poor households is the highest;The role of the livelihood decision dimension is significantly higher than the livelihood capital dimension;There is still no positive interaction between fiscal transfer expenditure and industrial production to enhance the livelihood resilience of poor groups.;Family size and production management have a significant impact on the livelihood resilience of poor groups,while the effects of income,consumption,and rural governance are not obvious.